The ending of most terrorist groups requires a range of policy instruments, such as careful police and intelligence work, military force, political negotiations, and economic sanctions.
Yet policy makers need to understand where to prioritize their efforts with limited resources and attention. Following an examination of terrorist groups that existed between and , the authors found that a transition to the political process is the most common way in which terrorist groups ended 43 percent.
The possibility of a political solution is inversely linked to the breadth of terrorist goals. Most terrorist groups that end because of politics seek narrow policy goals. The narrower the goals of a terrorist organization, the more likely it can achieve them without violent action and the more likely the government and terrorist group may be able to reach a negotiated settlement.
Against terrorist groups that cannot or will not make a transition to nonviolence, policing is likely to be the most effective strategy 40 percent. As depicted in Table 1, terrorist groups rarely achieve their goals. None of the Palestinian groups, secular or religious Fatah or Hamas , have achieved their ultimate aim of destroying Israel.
Some groups have achieved their tactical goals. Although there are a handful of exceptions, the use of terrorism is not a successful means to achieve long-term goals. Since failure is the most common result for terrorist groups, what are the alternatives their leaders confront once they realize this probability?
One option is to abandon the gun for the ballot box. Rarer still are groups that manage to escalate their violence from terrorism to full-scale internal warfare. In Vietnam, the Viet Cong managed to transform their insurgency along these lines. If taken together, the internal fragmentation of terrorist groups and their inability to pass their dreams to a new generation s of militants account for a relatively small number of outcomes.
The loss of state support, as Libya used to provide, has rarely caused groups to end their careers. When a state ends support for a terrorist group, other sources of funding are pursued, such as private philanthropy and bank robbery.
On a few occasions, public disapproval plays a significant role in ending the use of terrorist violence—such as with the Egyptian Islamic Group following its bloody attack on tourists in Luxor. Terrorist groups are often able to insulate themselves from external realities, particularly if they regard themselves as acting in the name of God.
Yet, there should be a distinction between motivation and capacity. The desire to raise the level of terrorism may increase in these instances, but the ability to do so declines. Terrorist groups are rarely democratic organizations. Although arresting a key figure is preferred, it is not always a possible outcome, especially when the individual prefers to die rather than surrender, or where the terrain is inaccessible to conventional law enforcement operations.
Repression certainly has its critics as well. In democracies, critics frequently object to repressive tactics on the grounds that they violate important constitutional safeguards both at home and abroad. Other critics stress the self-defeating nature of repression. Overly indiscriminate acts of repression by the police or military, especially foreign forces, act as recruiting tools for terrorists.
This appears to be true in some cases, such as for Palestinian militant groups, but not others, such as the Tupamaros in Uruguay. First, unlike previous waves, the current one is to a large extent driven by religion. Religious beliefs often have the power to elicit powerful emotions usually unavailable to such secular causes as Marxism-Leninism and Maoism. Please enter the message. Please verify that you are not a robot.
Would you also like to submit a review for this item? You already recently rated this item. Your rating has been recorded. Write a review Rate this item: 1 2 3 4 5. Preview this item Preview this item. But how? Most modern groups have ended because they joined the political process or local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members. Read more Find a copy online Links to this item Table of contents rand. Allow this favorite library to be seen by others Keep this favorite library private.
Save Cancel. Find a copy in the library Finding libraries that hold this item All terrorist groups eventually end.
Reviews User-contributed reviews Add a review and share your thoughts with other readers. Be the first. Add a review and share your thoughts with other readers. Terrorism -- Prevention -- International cooperation. Intelligence service.
0コメント